Predictors Of 30-day Mortality Research Articles

Cell-free DNA in patients with sepsis: long term trajectory and association with 28-day mortality and sepsis-associated acute kidney injury

IntroductionOutcome-prediction in patients with sepsis is challenging and currently relies on the serial measurement of many parameters. Standard diagnostic tools, such as serum creatinine (SCr), lack sensitivity and specificity for acute kidney injury (AKI). Circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA), which can be obtained from liquid biopsies, can potentially contribute to the quantification of tissue damage and the prediction of sepsis mortality and sepsis-associated AKI (SA-AKI).MethodsWe investigated the clinical significance of cfDNA levels as a predictor of 28-day mortality, the occurrence of SA-AKI and the initiation of renal replacement therapy (RRT) in patients with sepsis. Furthermore, we investigated the long-term course of cfDNA levels in sepsis survivors at 6 and 12 months after sepsis onset. Specifically, we measured mitochondrial DNA (mitochondrially encoded NADH-ubiquinone oxidoreductase chain 1, mt-ND1, and mitochondrially encoded cytochrome C oxidase subunit III, mt-CO3) and nuclear DNA (nuclear ribosomal protein S18, n-Rps18) in 81 healthy controls and all available samples of 150 intensive care unit patients with sepsis obtained at 3 ± 1 days, 7 ± 1 days, 6 ± 2 months and 12 ± 2 months after sepsis onset.ResultsOur analysis revealed that, at day 3, patients with sepsis had elevated levels of cfDNA (mt-ND1, and n-Rps18, all p<0.001) which decreased after the acute phase of sepsis. 28-day non-survivors of sepsis (16%) had higher levels of cfDNA (all p<0.05) compared with 28-day survivors (84%). Patients with SA-AKI had higher levels of cfDNA compared to patients without AKI (all p<0.05). Cell-free DNA was also significantly increased in patients requiring RRT (all p<0.05). All parameters improved the AUC for SCr in predicting RRT (AUC=0.88) as well as APACHE II in predicting mortality (AUC=0.86).ConclusionIn summary, cfDNA could potentially improve risk prediction models for mortality, SA-AKI and RRT in patients with sepsis. The predictive value of cfDNA, even with a single measurement at the onset of sepsis, could offer a significant advantage over conventional diagnostic methods that require repeated measurements or a baseline value for risk assessment. Considering that our data show that cfDNA levels decrease after the first insult, future studies could investigate cfDNA as a “memoryless” marker and thus bring further innovation to the complex field of SA-AKI diagnostics.

Development and validation of an early mortality risk model for pediatric hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis: a comparison with HScore, PELOD-2, P-MODS, and pSOFA.

There has been no severity evaluation model for pediatric patients with hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) that uses readily available parameters. This study aimed to develop a novel model for predicting the early mortality risk in pediatric patients with HLH using easily obtained parameters whatever etiologic subtype. Patients from one center were divided into training and validation sets for model derivation. The developed model was validated using an independent validation cohort from the second center. The prediction model with nomogram was developed based on logistic regression. The model performance underwent internal and external evaluation and validation using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve with 1000 bootstrap resampling, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Model performance was compared with the most prevalent severity evaluation scores, including the PELOD-2, P-MODS, and pSOFA scores. The prediction model included nine variables: glutamic-pyruvic transaminase, albumin, globulin, myohemoglobin, creatine kinase, serum potassium, procalcitonin, serum ferritin, and interval between onset and diagnosis. The AUC of the model for predicting the 28-day mortality was 0.933 and 0.932 in the training and validation sets, respectively. The AUC values of the HScore, PELOD-2, P-MODS and pSOFA were 0.815, 0.745, 0.659 and 0.788, respectively. The DCA of the 28-day mortality prediction exhibited a greater net benefit than the HScore, PELOD-2, P-MODS and pSOFA. Subgroup analyses demonstrated good model performance across HLH subtypes. The novel mortality prediction model in this study can contribute to the rapid assessment of early mortality risk after diagnosis with readily available parameters.

Nutrition adequacy in the late period of the acute phase is associated with a lower risk of 30-day mortality in critically ill patients: A prospective cohort study.

The provision of nutrition support for critically ill patients in the early phase of intensive care unit (ICU) admission plays a vital role in their recovery. However, there is still debate regarding the impact of nutrition adequacy of critical illness phases. We aimed to investigate whether nutrition adequacy in the acute phase (early and late periods) is associated with 30-day mortality in critically ill patients. We prospectively collected nutrition and clinical data from critically ill patients receiving exclusive enteral nutrition (EN) within the first 10 days of ICU admission. EN was classified as adequate when ≥80% of the prescribed EN was administered. Directed acyclic graphs were constructed to identify the minimum set of adjustment variables required to control for confounding factors. The relationships between energy and protein intake and 30-day mortality were assessed using the Cox regression analysis. A total of 119 patients were evaluated (70 years old, 56.3% male, and 68.1% with medical admission). The 30-day mortality rate was 23%. After adjusting for confounders, in the late period (days 5-10), energy adequacy (hazard ratio [HR] =  0.960; 95% CI, 0.937-0.984) and protein adequacy (HR = 0.960; 95% CI, 0.937-0.982) were predictors of 30-day mortality. No associations were observed in the early period (days 1-4) of the acute phase. In critically ill patients, nutrition adequacy (≥80% EN) during days 5-10 in the ICU was associated with a lower risk of 30-day mortality.

Association of Imaging-based Predictors with Outcome in Different Treatment Options for Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

Intracerebral hemorrhage is the deadliest form of stroke. This study aimed to enhance the prediction of 30-day mortality in intracerebral hemorrhage patients by integrating computational parameters. This study retrospectively analyzed 435 patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Utilizing the acquired computed tomography (CT) images, we extracted the contour and visual representation of ICH. For the extracted contour, the analysis encompassed factors including compactness, fractal dimension, Fourier factor, and circle factor. For the images depicting ICH, we calculated various factors related to density distribution including mean, coefficient of variance, skewness and kurtosis, as well as texture parameters, such as energy, entropy, contrast and homogeneity. To assess the impact of surgical treatment on 30-day mortality, logistic regression analysis was used. Atotal of 126 patients (29.09%) died within 30days. Atotal of 62 (14.25%) patients underwent surgical treatment. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that surgical treatment was independently associated with alower risk of 30-day mortality (odds ratio, OR 0.226, 95% confidence interval, CI 0.049-0.85; p = 0.039). Based on the moderated analysis, we found that the volume of ICH (OR 0.905, 95% CI 0.902-0.908; p < 0.001) and ICH energy (OR 1.389, 95%CI 0.884-0.988; p = 0.010) had positive moderating effect on such associations while the presence of intraventricular blood had negative moderating effect (OR 1.154, 95% CI 1.034-1.628; p = 0.010). Patients exhibiting ahigher volume and energy of ICH might benefit from surgical treatment; however, this efficacy was found to be diminished in cases involving the presence of intraventricular blood.

Nomogram to Predict 90-Day All-Cause Mortality in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients after Endovascular Thrombectomy.

Although Endovascular Thrombectomy (EVT) significantly improves the prognosis of Acute Ischemic Stroke (AIS) patients with large vessel occlusion, the mortality rate remains higher. This study aimed to construct and validate a nomogram for predicting 90-day all-cause mortality in AIS patients with large vessel occlusion and who have undergone EVT. AIS patients with large vessel occlusion in the anterior circulation who underwent EVT from May 2017 to December 2022 were included. 430 patients were randomly split into a training group (N=302) and a test group (N=128) for the construction and validation of our nomogram. In the training group, multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the predictors of 90-day all-cause mortality. The C-index, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis were applied to evaluate the nomogram performance. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed neurological deterioration during hospitalization, age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, occlusive vessel location, malignant brain edema, and Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) as the independent predictors of 90-day all-cause mortality (all p ≤ 0.039). The C-index of the training and test groups was 0.891 (95%CI 0.848-0.934) and 0.916 (95% CI: 0.865-0.937), respectively, showing the nomogram to be well distinguished. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test revealed the p-values for both the internal and external verification datasets to be greater than 0.5. Our nomogram has incorporated relevant clinical and imaging features, including neurological deterioration, age, baseline NIHSS score, occlusive vessel location, malignant brain edema, and NLR ratio, to provide an accurate and reliable prediction of 90-day all-cause mortality in AIS patients undergoing EVT.

Echocardiographic parameters as adjuncts to Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) in prediction of 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism.

Echocardiographic parameters as adjuncts to Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) in prediction of 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism.

Insights into the Novel Cardiac Biomarker in Acute Heart Failure: Mybp-C.

(1) Background: Given its high cardiac specificity and its capacity to directly assess the cardiac function, cardiac myosin-binding protein (MyBP-C) is a promising biomarker in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). The aim of our study was to investigate the clinical utility of this novel marker for diagnosis and short-term prognosis in subjects with AHF. (2) Methods: We measured plasma levels of MyBP-C at admission in 49 subjects (27 patients admitted with AHF and 22 controls). (3) Results: The plasma concentration of MyBP-C was significantly higher in patients with AHF compared to controls (54.88 vs. 0.01 ng/L, p < 0.001). For 30-day prognosis, MyBP-C showed significantly greater AUC (0.972, p < 0.001) than NT-proBNP (0.849, p = 0.001) and hs-TnI (0.714, p = 0.047). In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, an elevated level of MyBP-C was the best independent predictor of 30-day mortality (OR = 1.08, p = 0.039) or combined death/recurrent 30-days rehospitalization (OR = 1.12, p = 0.014). (4) Conclusions: Our data show that circulating MyBP-C is a sensitive and cardiac-specific biomarker with potential utility for the accurate diagnosis and prognosis of AHF.

Treatment outcomes in patients with acute thromboembolic occlusion of the superior mesenteric artery

ObjectivesThe goals of this study were to investigate the treatment outcomes of acute thromboembolic occlusion of the superior mesenteric artery (ATOS) and identify prognostic factors after treatment.MethodsThe clinical data of 62 patients with ATOS between 2013 and 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were stratified by the treatment strategy, complications and mortality were compared in different group.ResultsSixty-two consecutive patients were identified with ATOS. The median patient age was 69 years (interquartile range 58–79 years). Endovascular therapy was initiated in 21 patients, and 4 patients received conservative treatment. Open surgery was performed first in the remaining 37 patients. The technical success rates of the endovascular first group and open surgery group were 90.5% and 97.3%, respectively. One patient in the conservative treatment group had progression of ischemia to extensive bowel necrosis. There was no difference in 30-day mortality between these groups. Predictors of 30-day mortality included initial neutrophil count > 12* 103/dL, age over 60 years old and history of chronic renal insufficiency.ConclusionsEndovascular treatment or conservative treatment may be adopted in selected patients who do not exhibit signs and symptoms of bowel necrosis, and close monitoring for bowel necrosis is important. The increase in preoperative neutrophil count, age over 60 years old and history of chronic renal insufficiency were poor prognostic factors.

Red blood cell distribution width-to-albumin ratio: a prognostic biomarker of sepsis patients

IntroductionTo explore the association of red blood cell distribution width-to-albumin ratio (RAR) with 28-day mortality among septic patients, as well as to develop predictive models for evaluating the prognostic significance of RAR.Material and methodsRelevant information was obtained from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III). A total of 1475 individuals diagnosed with sepsis were enrolled. Data on patients’ age, creatinine levels, and mechanical ventilation status in the initial 24 h after intensive care unit (ICU) admission were gathered. We employed multivariate COX analyses to investigate the correlation between RAR and 28-day mortality, and we conducted subgroup analyses stratified by gender, age, intervention modality, and disease progression. We established 4 prediction models relevant to RAR to forecast the 28-day mortality of septic patients. Additionally, we evaluated the predictive value using receiver operator characteristic curves.ResultsThe significance of the association between RAR and 28-day mortality was maintained among sepsis patients regardless of their use or non-use of mechanical ventilation or vasopressor, presence or absence of septic shock, and gender (male or female). Additionally, these developed models associated with RAR demonstrated a good predictive value in forecasting the 28-day mortality rate among septic patients.ConclusionsThis study provides evidence, suggesting a significant correlation between RAR and the 28-day mortality among sepsis patients of ICU admission. It might show promise of RAR as a potential dependable prognostic marker for the prediction of 28-day mortality in sepsis patients.

Characteristics, predictors and outcomes of new-onset QT prolongation in sepsis: a multicenter retrospective study

BackgroundSepsis-induced myocardial injury is a serious complication of sepsis. QT prolongation is a proarrhythmic state which reflects myocardial injury in a group of heterogeneous disorders. However, the study on the clinical value of QT prolongation in sepsis is limited.MethodsWe aimed to investigate the clinical characteristics and predictors of new-onset QT prolongation in sepsis and its impact on the outcome in a multicenter retrospective cohort study. Electrocardiographic and clinical data were collected from patients with sepsis from the wards and intensive care units of four centers after exclusion of QT-influencing medications and electrolyte abnormalities. Clinical outcomes were compared between patients with and without QT prolongation (QTc > 450 ms). Multivariate analysis was performed to ascertain whether QT prolongation was an independent predictor for 30-day mortality. The factors predicting QT prolongation in sepsis were also analyzed.ResultsNew-onset QT prolongation occurred in 235/1024 (22.9%) patients. The majority demonstrated similar pattern as type 1 long QT syndrome. Patients with QT prolongation had a higher 30-day in-hospital mortality (P < 0.001), which was also associated with increased tachyarrhythmias including paroxysmal atrial fibrillation or tachycardia (P < 0.001) and ventricular arrhythmia (P < 0.001) during hospitalization. QT prolongation independently predicted 30-day mortality (P = 0.044) after multivariate analysis. History of coronary artery disease (P = 0.001), septic shock (P = 0.008), acute respiratory (P < 0.001), heart (P = 0.021) and renal dysfunction (P = 0.013) were independent predictors of QT prolongation in sepsis.ConclusionsNew-onset QT prolongation in sepsis was associated with increased mortality as well as atrial and ventricular arrhythmias, which was predicted by disease severity and organ dysfunction.Graphical abstract

Urine Liver-Type Fatty Acid Binding Protein; Biomarker for Diagnosing Acute Kidney Injury and Predicting Mortality in Cirrhotic Patients

Objective: To determine impact of urine liver-type fatty acid binding protein (uL-FABP) and urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL), which were biomarkers linked to acute kidney injury (AKI), in AKI diagnosis and prediction of 28-day mortality among hospitalized cirrhotic patients. Materials and Methods: We prospectively enrolled hospitalized cirrhotic patients at a tertiary care university hospital between June 2018 and November 2019. The uL-FABP, uNGAL, and plasma NGAL (pNGAL) were collected within 48 hours of admission. Cutoff values of biomarkers for diagnosing AKI derived from receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent factors for 28-day mortality. Results: We enrolled 109 cirrhotic patients in derivative cohort, 41.3% had AKI. Median uL-FABP, uNGAL, and pNGAL levels in AKI group were higher than non-AKI group: 8.1 vs. 2.8 ng/mL (p=0.002), 40.5 vs. 10.1 ng/mL (p&lt;0.001), and 195.7 vs 81.4 ng/mL (p=0.001), respectively. Areas under the ROC curve of uL-FABP, uNGAL, and pNGAL for AKI diagnosis were 0.68, 0.73 and 0.68, respectively. Also, all biomarkers were significantly higher in mortality group. Multivariate analysis showed that the only independent predictor for 28-day mortality was uL-FABP ≥ 4.68 ng/mL (odd ratio 4.15, p=0.02). Conclusion: UL-FABP, uNGAL, and pNGAL are associated with AKI in hospitalized cirrhotic patients. Moreover, uL-FABP ≥ 4.68 ng/mL was a significant independent predictor for 28-day mortality.

Prognostic value of cognitive impairment, assessed by the Clock Drawing Test, in emergency department patients presenting with non-specific complaints

BackgroundCognitive impairment (CI) is common among older patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). The failure to recognize CI at ED presentation constitutes a high risk of additional morbidity, mortality, and functional decline. The Clock Drawing Test (CDT) is a well-established cognitive screening test. AimIn patients presenting to the ED with non-specific complaints (NSCs), we aimed to investigate the usability of the CDT and its prognostic value regarding length of hospital stay (LOS) and mortality. MethodSecondary analysis of the Basel Non-specific Complaints (BANC) trial, a prospective delayed type cross-sectional study with a 30-day follow-up. In three EDs, patients presenting with NSCs were enrolled. The CDT was administered at enrollment. ResultsIn the 1,278 patients enrolled, median age was 81 [74, 87] years and 782 were female (61.19%). A valid CDT was obtained in 737 (57.7%) patients. In patients without a valid CDT median LOS was higher (29 [9, 49] days vs. 22 [9, 45] days), and 30-day mortality was significantly higher than in patients with a valid CDT (n = 45 (8.32%) vs. n = 39 (5.29%)). Of all valid CDTs, 154 clocks (20.9%) were classified as normal, 55 (7.5%) as mildly deficient, 297 (40.3%) as moderately deficient, and 231 (31.3%) as severely deficient. Mortality and LOS increased along with the CDT deficits (p = 0.012 for 30-day mortality; p < 0.001 for LOS). ConclusionThe early identification of patients with CI may lead to improved patient management and resource allocation. The CDT could be used as a risk stratification tool for older ED patients presenting with NSCs, as it is a predictor for 30-day mortality and LOS.

Clinical Outcomes after Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement in 681 Octogenarians: A Single-Center Real-World Experience Comparing the Old Patients with the Very Old Patients

Aortic valve disease is a lethal condition, once it becomes symptomatic. Surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) has, for a long time, been the only treatment option. In patients aged 85 and older, the consequences of SAVR have rarely been investigated. A total of 681 octogenarian patients were subdivided into a group with patients between 80 and 84 years (n = 527) and a group with patients aged 85 or older (n = 154). For each group, the temporal referral pattern, preoperative comorbid profile, operative data, postoperative need for resources, and adverse postoperative events including 30-day mortality and long-term survival were determined using the chi-squared test, Student’s t-test, and log-rank test. For both age groups, the predictors for mortality were identified using a logistic regression analysis. In the oldest patient group, there were significantly more prior episodes of heart failure (75/154 vs. 148/527) and a greater need for urgent SAVR (45/150 vs. 109/515). The operative data and the need for postoperative resources were comparable, but the 30-day mortality was almost twice as high (24/154 vs. 45/527). The need for urgent SAVR was twice as high in the oldest group (odds ratio of 3.12 vs. 6.64). A logistic regression analysis for all 681 patients showed that age over 85 ranked fourth of six predictors for 30-day mortality. Five-year survival was favorable for both groups (67.8 ± 2.1% vs. 60.0 ± 4.3%). A Cox proportional hazard analysis failed to identify an age over 85 as a predictor for long-term mortality. Aortic valve disease and its effect on the left ventricle seemed to be more advanced in the highest age group. The mortality rate was almost double the need for urgent SAVR. This can be avoided by obtaining an earlier referral.

Predictors of 30-Day Mortality for Surgically Treated Patients with Spontaneous Supratentorial Intracerebral Hemorrhage and Validation of the Surgical Swedish Intracerebral Hemorrhage Score: A Retrospective Single-Center Analysis of 136 Cases

We aimed to: identify independent risk factors of 30-day mortality in patients with surgically treated spontaneous supratentorial ICH, validate the SwICH Score within Polish Healthcare System, and compare the SwICH Score to the ICH Score.We carried out a single-centre retrospective analysis of the medical data juxtaposed with CT scans of 136 ICH patients treated surgically between 2008 and 2022. Statistical analysis was performed using the same characteristics as in the SwICH Score and the ICH Score. Backward stepwise logistic regression with both 5-fold cross-validation and 1000x bootstrap procedure was used to create new scoring system. Finally predictive potential of these scales were compared.The most important predictors of 30-days mortality were: ICH volume (p<0.01), GCS at admission (p<0.01), anticoagulant status (p=0.03), and age (p<0.01). The SwICH score appears to have a better predictive potential than the ICH score, although this did not reach statistical significance [AUC: 0.789 (95% CI: 0.715-0.863) vs. AUC: 0.757 (95% CI: 0.677-0.837)]. Moreover, based on the analysed characteristics, we developed our score (encompassing: age, ICH volume, anticoagulants status, GCS at admission), [AUC of 0.872 (95% CI: 0.815-0.929)]. This score was significantly better than previous ones.Differences in healthcare systems seem to affect the accuracy of prognostic scales for patients with ICH, including possible differences in indications for surgery and postoperative care. Thus, it is important to validate assessment tools before they can be applied in a new setting and develop population-specific scores. This may improve the effectiveness of risk stratification in patients with ICH.

Elevated Activated Partial Thromboplastin Time as a Predictor of 28-Day Mortality in Sepsis-Associated Acute Kidney Injury: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis.

To address the critical mortality rates among sepsis-associated acute kidney injury (SA-AKI) patients, early prognosis is vital. This study investigates the relationship between coagulation indices and the 28-day mortality rate in patients with SA-AKI. This study was a retrospective cohort analysis including patients with SA-AKI admitted to the First Hospital of Fujian Medical University as a training cohort (n = 119) and patients admitted to the Third People's Hospital of Fujian University of Traditional Chinese Medicine as a validation cohort (n = 51). We examined the relationship between coagulation indices and 28-day mortality in SA-AKI, the cumulative mortality at different activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) levels, and the nonlinear relationship between APTT and 28-day mortality. Receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted, and the area under the curve was calculated to assess the predictive power of APTT. Finally, subgroup analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the association. Overall, 119 participants with a mean±standard deviation age of 70.47±15.20 years were included in the training cohort: 54 died, 65 survived. According to univariate and multivariate COX regression analyses, APACHE II score, CRP level, Lac level, and APTT level were independent risk factors for 28-day adverse prognosis. After controlling for some variables, an elevated baseline APTT (≥ 37.7 s) was associated with an elevated risk of 28-day mortality (HR, 1.017; 95% CI, 1.001-1.032), and Kaplan-Meier analyses further confirmed the increased mortality in the group with a higher APTT. The same results were shown when the validation cohort was analyzed (HR, 1.024; 95% CI, 0.958-1.096). Subgroup analyses showed the stability of the association between APTT and poor prognosis in SA-AKI. In essence, APTT elevation is synonymous with increased 28-day mortality rates, indicating a poor prognosis in SA-AKI scenarios.

The Role of Lactate-based Serum Tests for Prediction of 30-day Mortality in Hospitalized Cirrhotic Patients with Acute Decompensation: A Prospective Cohort Study

Objective: Cirrhotic patients with acute decompensation are associated with high short-term mortality. The prognostic performance of venous lactate (VLAC) for mortality prediction in these patients has not been well established. This study aimed to evaluate the role of several lactate-based serum tests for prediction of 30-day mortality in these patients. Materials and Methods: Cirrhotic patients with acute decompensation were prospectively enrolled. VLAC on admission and at 6, 12, and 24 hours were determined. Lactate clearance (LAC-Cl), MELD-lactate, and MELD-lactate clearance (MELD-ΔLA) at each timepoint were calculated and compared between 30-days survivors and non-survivors. Results: 74 patients were included (age 69±13 years, 66.2% male, MELD 18.3±7). The main indications for admission were infection (67.6%) and gastrointestinal bleeding (18.9%). The 30-day mortality rate was 29.7%. Initial VLAC was significantly higher in non-survivors (9.7±8 vs. 3.61±1.79 mmol/L, P&lt;0.001). In addition, VLAC at 6, 12, 24 hours, MELD-Lactate and MELD-ΔLA scores were significantly higher in non-survivors. Based on ROC analysis, the VLAC, MELD-Lactate, and MELD-ΔLA at 6 hours were reliable predictors of 30-day mortality (AUROC 0.79, 0.86, and 0.86, respectively). However, compared to MELD score (AUROC 0.81), no significant difference was found. Conclusion: In hospitalized cirrhotic patient with acute decompensation, VLAC, MELD-Lactate and MELD-ΔLA at 6 hours are simple, and reliable predictors for 30-day mortality.

Predictors of 28-day mortality in melioidosis patients presenting to an emergency department: a retrospective cohort study from South India.

Septic melioidosis is associated with high mortality in resource-limited settings. The current study aims to find 28-d all-cause mortality predictors within 24 h of admission in melioidosis patients presenting to an emergency department. This retrospective cohort study (2018-2022) included melioidosis patients divided into two groups based on their primary outcomes (28-d mortality). All the clinically relevant factors significant in univariate analysis were selected for binary logistic regression analysis. Those factors significant in logistic regression analysis were considered independent predictors of mortality. Of the 53 patients with melioidosis, the 28-d mortality of melioidosis patients admitted to the emergency department was 51% (n=27). Respiratory involvement, renal dysfunction, haemodynamic instability, elevated aspartate transaminase, elevated activated partial thromboplastin time, elevated CRP, elevated procalcitonin, decreased albumin, decreased absolute neutrophil count, decreased absolute lymphocyte count and use of piperacillin-tazobactam or azithromycin were significant predictors of mortality on univariate analysis. Vasopressor requirement (p=0.03) and low serum albumin level (0.041) at presentation were independent predictors of mortality. Vasopressor requirement and low albumin levels at presentation in the emergency department are independent predictors of mortality. There is a need to create awareness among primary care physicians to enable early diagnosis and prompt initiation of treatment.

Comparative Predictive Accuracies of the Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit, Sepsis Severity Score, and Standard Severity Scores for 90-day Mortality in Sepsis Patients.

The standard severity scores were used for predicting hospital mortality of intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Recently, the new predictive score, Simplified Mortality Score for the ICU (SMS-ICU), was developed for predicting 90-day mortality. To validate the ability of the SMS-ICU and compare with sepsis severity score (SSS) and original severity scores for predicting 90-day mortality in sepsis patients. An analysis of retrospective data was conducted in the ICU of a university teaching hospital. Also, 90-day mortality was used for the primary outcome. A total of 1,161 patients with sepsis were included. The 90-day mortality was 42.4%. The SMS-ICU presented the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.71, whereas the SSS had significantly higher AUROC than that of the SMS-ICU (AUROC 0.876, p < 0.001). The acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II and IV, and the simplified acute physiology scores (SAPS) II demonstrated good discrimination, with an AUROC above 0.90. The SMS-ICU provides poor calibration for 90-day mortality prediction, similar to the SSS and other standard severity scores. Furthermore, 90-day mortality was underestimated by the SMS-ICU, which had a standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of 1.36. The overall performance by Brier score demonstrated that the SMS-ICU was inferior to the SSS (0.222 and 0.169, respectively). Also, SAPS II presented the best overall performance with a Brier score of 0.092. The SMS-ICU indicated lower performance compared to the SSS, standard severity scores. Consequently, modifications are required to enhance the performance of the SMS-ICU. Sathaporn N, Khwannimit B. Comparative Predictive Accuracies of the Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit, Sepsis Severity Score, and Standard Severity Scores for 90-day Mortality in Sepsis Patients. Indian J Crit Care Med 2024;28(4):343-348.

Individual- and Community-Level Predictors of Hospital-at-Home Outcomes.

Advanced Care at Home is a Mayo Clinic hospital-at-home (HaH) program that provides hospital-level care for patients. The study examines patient- and community-level factors that influence health outcomes. The authors performed a retrospective study using patient data from July 2020 to December 2022. The study includes 3 Mayo Clinic centers and community-level data from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. The authors conducted binary logistic regression analyses to examine the relationship among the independent variables (patient- and community-level characteristics) and dependent variables (30-day readmission, mortality, and escalation of care back to the brick-and-mortar hospital). The study examined 1433 patients; 53% were men, 90.58% were White, and 68.2% were married. The mortality rate was 2.8%, 30-day readmission was 11.4%, and escalation back to brick-and-mortar hospitals was 8.7%. At the patient level, older age and male gender were significant predictors of 30-day mortality (P-value <0.05), older age was a significant predictor of 30-day readmission (P-value <0.05), and severity of illness was a significant predictor for readmission, mortality, and escalation back to the brick-and-mortar hospital (P-value <0.01). Patients with COVID-19 were less likely to experience readmission, mortality, or escalations (P-value <0.05). At the community level, the Gini Index and internet access were significant predictors of mortality (P-value <0.05). Race and ethnicity did not significantly predict adverse outcomes (P-value >0.05). This study showed promise in equitable treatment of diverse patient populations. The authors discuss and address health equity issues to approximate the vision of inclusive HaH delivery.

Assessing SOFA score trajectories in sepsis using machine learning: A pragmatic approach to improve the accuracy of mortality prediction.

An increasing amount of longitudinal health data is available on critically ill septic patients in the age of digital medicine, including daily sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score measurements. Thus, the assessment in sepsis focuses increasingly on the evaluation of the individual disease's trajectory. Machine learning (ML) algorithms may provide a promising approach here to improve the evaluation of daily SOFA score dynamics. We tested whether ML algorithms can outperform the conventional ΔSOFA score regarding the accuracy of 30-day mortality prediction. We used the multicentric SepsisDataNet.NRW study cohort that prospectively enrolled 252 sepsis patients between 03/2018 and 09/2019 for training ML algorithms, i.e. support vector machine (SVM) with polynomial kernel and artificial neural network (aNN). We used the Amsterdam UMC database covering 1,790 sepsis patients for external and independent validation. Both SVM (AUC 0.84; 95% CI: 0.71-0.96) and aNN (AUC 0.82; 95% CI: 0.69-0.95) assessing the SOFA scores of the first seven days led to a more accurate prognosis of 30-day mortality compared to the ΔSOFA score between day 1 and 7 (AUC 0.73; 95% CI: 0.65-0.80; p = 0.02 and p = 0.05, respectively). These differences were even more prominent the shorter the time interval considered. Using the SOFA scores of day 1 to 3 SVM (AUC 0.82; 95% CI: 0.68 0.95) and aNN (AUC 0.80; 95% CI: 0.660.93) led to a more accurate prognosis of 30-day mortality compared to the ΔSOFA score (AUC 0.66; 95% CI: 0.58-0.74; p < 0.01 and p < 0.01, respectively). Strikingly, all these findings could be confirmed in the independent external validation cohort. The ML-based algorithms using daily SOFA scores markedly improved the accuracy of mortality compared to the conventional ΔSOFA score. Therefore, this approach could provide a promising and automated approach to assess the individual disease trajectory in sepsis. These findings reflect the potential of incorporating ML algorithms as robust and generalizable support tools on intensive care units.